Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 72513.060526 76657.589976 80806.356470 85267.907576 89927.042658 94645.860635 99783.307337
2025-03-30 66037.399001 72391.500523 78935.246958 86168.277520 93929.363994 101997.230384 111008.246825
2025-04-06 60938.422278 68764.592341 77007.840803 86317.696102 96519.515803 107338.384191 119658.586265
2025-04-13 56853.638389 65747.450848 75294.546484 86272.426098 98513.065001 111708.155422 126973.044198
2025-04-20 54337.708606 64180.963440 74920.693488 87460.445210 101649.683470 117156.772888 135333.620193
2025-04-27 52214.923956 62861.230630 74648.308798 88600.215224 104594.402420 122286.731823 143265.044103
2025-05-04 50042.267221 61326.977536 73991.871658 89173.125142 106786.030799 126485.199318 150088.447550
2025-05-11 47807.288003 59586.381292 72977.328130 89220.579749 108277.707407 129812.319665 155865.793704
2025-05-18 45910.161867 58138.495804 72208.872811 89466.236506 109924.447655 133262.598979 161750.409345
2025-05-25 44116.916704 56724.231042 71398.677940 89587.108559 111361.646159 136424.038662 167272.615654
2025-06-01 43004.661857 56072.778716 71444.920631 90681.619046 113917.104720 140877.607658 174312.555635
2025-06-08 41321.383924 54649.332381 70495.693446 90518.539836 114920.928526 143464.829947 179129.353065
2025-06-15 40472.266648 54238.467544 70769.011863 91843.666550 117740.006523 148256.080475 186646.072478
2025-06-22 39436.186378 53551.689792 70669.816674 92687.524661 119963.198187 152339.127871 193342.513186
2025-06-29 38124.224734 52464.194396 70028.250476 92820.831761 121286.258495 155319.667883 198709.458663
2025-07-06 36805.958024 51319.112786 69269.780168 92767.167313 122345.627987 157959.080345 203656.238327
2025-07-13 36171.306834 51030.251234 69569.637763 94025.790854 125027.502147 162586.939180 211054.849166
2025-07-20 35553.828895 50736.921753 69842.156862 95234.045300 127640.367141 167136.786263 218382.219930
2025-07-27 34708.888790 50111.871388 69661.480486 95841.393291 129482.031731 170729.778942 224540.147452
2025-08-03 33670.230101 49193.688444 69069.668055 95891.689221 130595.685135 173405.423222 229560.321126
2025-08-10 32771.469207 48433.965418 68658.189882 96152.122477 131960.921512 176389.348311 234972.366963
2025-08-17 31862.309609 47630.883662 68163.343703 96280.263096 133138.989131 179129.997220 240083.941038
2025-08-24 31407.565147 47434.426674 68460.288535 97440.511654 135650.999649 183569.023249 247364.667218